Currently, around 7 million Americans are taking Ozempic or one of the other GLP-1’s including Wegovy and Zepbound. That number is expected to increase to around 24 million over the next 5 years and, a KFF Health Tracking Poll in July last year found that nearly half of adults (45%) say they would generally be interested in taking a safe and effective prescription weight loss drug.
When we posted about this a year ago the early data suggested that GLP-1s reduced calorie intake by 20% to 30% a day. We remarked at the time that if the 45% of Americans who want to take these types of drugs get to, that would mean the food industry would see a 9% – 15% reduction in sales!
What wasn’t clear was whether those reductions would be across all foods or whether they would be focused on particular types of foods. As reported in the NYT about a week ago, it’s now clear that people who are taking GLP-1s are not only reducing food intake, they are also changing the types of food they eat and enjoy. Out are processed and packaged foods, and in are fresh fruits, vegetables, and home cooked meals.
The convenience and packaged food industry has taken note and is busy creating new offerings that will provide the same level of convenience while also appealing to the new healthier tastes and demands of American consumers taking GLP-1s.
The impacts to the agriculture and chemical industry will also be significant. Demand for the produce now favored by a greater proportion of Americans will increase, while demand for other chemicals and food products used heavily in packaged foods will decline.
In addition, every company operating in or dependent on the food and beverage industry like restaurants, trucking, distribution, logistics, and retail, will see significant impacts.
Pepper Foster Consulting, a strategy and execution consulting firm with a ton of experience helping our clients in the agriculture, food, beverage, retail, distribution, and consumer packaged goods industries can help you analyze, quantify, and plan for the likely changes that GLP-1s are bringing.